(My man, Dave Baker, and his bride at our KY Lake…Dave was inducted into the Kentucky Broadcasters Association Hall of Fame this week. No one more deserving…)

(Stats to be updated after Churchill Downs’ card on Thursday night)

Here’s our looks at the “big oval” on Friday:

1st: 3-6/4/2/1-5/1A…Candy Kick (3) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Big O-val” in Louistown on this Friday. This 3YO daughter of Candy Ride will drop to the $30,000 price tag here after a rather ho-hum performance at Ellis Park over the sod on Aug. 15. Gets back to the dirt here and the barn wins with .28% of the last 18 to make this surface switch. Ran OK to be 3rd over the main track here in June. That performance may get the job done here. Junellia (6) ran well over the grass at Indy two starts back. Wilted and faded in the last try. Move to dirt can’t hurt and the barn wins with .23% of the last 119 to make this surface exchange. Gets a rider who is having a solid year. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-6 in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 4-2 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 3-5-4/1-6/2-7…Prayforpeace (3) is something that we all should do every single day, but this 3YO gelding may get a huge boost here with the switch in trainers. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time since he won here at this same price point on May 29. Has faced tougher ever since. Look out here. Blue Kentucky (5) drops in class for this one and moves back to the dirt. Both of those alterations should help this one. Has a win over this main track and gets a clever pilot back in the saddle. Waita Minute Hayes (4) could spice up the odds rack a bit here. This one is 8-1 in the ML, but has a real shot here, IMO. Ran well in a Stakes at Delta Downs towards the end of the 2021 campaign. If he can rediscover that form? Chance. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box these top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-6 in two smaller units.

3rd: 2-1/4/3-6//5…Air Combat (2) gets the slight edge here, due to the fact that he has been running against tougher of late. Has a win at this distance, too. Picks up a solid rider switch and looks primed. Dr. Perry (1) was cut out to be a real good one. Son of Into Mischief cost $690,000 to purchase at the 2020 KEE September Yearling Sale. Has worked well for this and gets a top rider for this assignment. One to beat, IMO. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 2-1 over (only) the 4-3-6 in a smaller unit. 

4th: 8-7-2/5/4-1/6-3…Forever Home (8) is a 4YO Ironicus filly who drops to a career low price tag here. Won, to break the maiden, just three starts ago here and was offered up for $30,000 that day. Cut back in distance here could help, as well. Big shot. Louella Street (7) will make the first start of the career for the new barn operation. Trainer wins with .13% with the newcomers. Picks up a red hot rider for this one and the work on Sept. 22 was a step in right direction. Fits. Green Bananas (2) could spice up these odds. Listed at 8-1 by Brisnet.com in the ML. Love the first start back last November. The first start back this year came in September — 10 month layoff. Not good. But off slow and compromised throughout. Barn wins with .17% on the 2nd start off a vacation and with .30% when dropping this much at one time. Like this one here. A lot. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units. 

5th: 2-6-8/1-5/3/7-4…Black Forest (2) is a 2YO daughter of Frosted who I have touted before. Got some of my money back. Has run 3 straight 2nds to begin the career. Looks salty in this group and gets a speed rider for the assignment. Look for this one to be rolling on the front end. Come catch me if you can. Nomadic Pride (6) is a first timer for a red hot barn and rider combo — who have teamed up to win at a .23% clip in the last 52 mounts together. Dam has 5 winners from 5 starters and has 2 Stakes winners on the ground. Sharp wok on Sept. 22 to add fuel. Got to use, right? Tell Me When (8) is coming off a debacle over the grass at Saratoga. But before that? Two seconds on the brown dirt here and in “The Springs.” Toss the last one and this one looks awesome. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-5 in two smaller units. 

6th: 7/2-1-5-6/4/3…The first “Key Play of the Day”  comes here with Eleven Central (7). This 4YO son of Into Mischief cost .4950,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale and is now a gelding. Ouch. On so many levels. Has won back $92,000 of the original investment. Long way to go here. But? This one has hit the board in 4 of 5 lifetime starts and comes in off a huge 2nd here last time out. Lost that day to Digital (2), who is back here, as well. This one has a big shot, too, but I truly love the 7 in this spot. I bet the 7 across the board and then key the 7 over/under the 2-1-5-6 in the exactas. More with the 7-2 box than the rest. 

7th: 8-9/4-3/2-6/5/1-7…Two Minute Drill (8) ran a huge one last time out and nearly won that day. Drew clear and may have thought the game was over. Caught on the wire. Dam was a Stakes-winner and this one has “the look.” Queen of Chill (9) is a first timer from the barn of Brad Cox — who wins with .18% of the last 579 to make the debut. This one is by a really hot sire, who tosses .21% winners on first ask. Rider has gone 6-3-3 in the last 19 starts for this barn operation. Works are super nice. Threat. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-9 in the exactas. I will key the 8-9 over/unde the 4-3-2-6 in two smaller units. 

8th: 2-4-3/1/5-7/6…Scarlet Fusion (2) gets the slight edge in this well-matched group. This one has never won here in 7 previous tries. But does have 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Rider has won 2 of the last 3 for this barn and this one has some speed that can boost the charges. Looks ready. Never off the board in two starts at this distance. Decision Maker (4) has gone 1-1-2 in 11 tries here before this one. Gets a new rider, who was 3rd on this one just 3 starts ago and won with him back in March at Oaklawn Park. Could be a huge threat in the lane. Coming late. Alejandro (3) gets reunited with the rider who is up for the first time since winning here together on July 2. Look out. Another with a late-move chance. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

9th: 5-9-8/3-7/4-10/1-6/2…Fight Fiercely (5) could give us a boost on the finale race of the day. This 2YO son of Twirling Candy ran two nice ones before stretching out to two turns on Aug. 28. Gets back to the sprint distance here and that could aid the cause. Barn wins with .23% when going sprint to a route and back to a sprint. Also returns as a two-time beaten favorite. Nice. Look out. Bolt Above (9) could really spice up these odds, as listed at 10-1 in the ML. Look at the comment line on the inaugural race. “Brush gate.” That is a death knell to most, especially with first time starters. Gets a top rider here to take the mount. Look out, II. Day Trade (8) will begin the career for a top barn operation, which is winning at a .29% rate this meet after the first 28 mounts. Training very well for the debut. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-7 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene

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